理论期货价格

对日、周、月数据的研究发现，H值均大于0.5，这说明期货价格波动并不遵循有效市场理论，期货价格时间序列的观测值之间不是相互独立的，期货价格时间序列具有持久性趋势。

Results show that H value is greater than 0.5 , which indicates that futures price fluctuation does not follow the effective market theory . The observed value between the futures prices is time series not independent . Futures prices time series exhibit permanent trends .

以上海期货市场的期铜为例，依据协整理论对期货价格与现货价格的关系进行了实证分析，并给出其误差修正模型。

This paper , based on cointegration theory , empirically analyses the relation of future and present prices of coper in Shanghai market .

仓储价格理论说明了期货价格基差的含义、解释了现货与期货价格之间的关系。

The theory of price of storage tells us what is price basis and how to interact between the spot price and the futures markets price .

主要的不足是在实证的分析方法是采取了主流成熟的计量分析方法，没有将一些新的模型或者理论用于期货市场价格发现的研究。

The main shortage is that a mainstream mature econometric analysis methods is adopted in this paper , no some new model or theory is used for futures market price discovery research .

本文首先回顾了国内外期货价格和现货价格关系的经典理论，在期货价格的构成和期货价格的形成理论的基础上，分析了期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系。

This paper reviews the classical theory of relationship between the futures prices and spot price , and analyzes the long-term relationship and the short-term dynamic relationship between the futures prices and spot prices which based on the composition of futures prices and futures price formation theory .

建立和实现了基于灰色理论的电力市场期货价格的改进GM（1,1）预测模型。

We establish and accomplish the improved GM ( 1,1 ) forecast model for the forward price in power market , which is based on the grey theory .