基数效应

好消息是，就算没有其它手段管用的话，基数效应也将在未来几个月帮助遏制CPI。

The good news is that base effects , if nothing else , will help to tame CPI in the coming months .

由于这些因素和有利的基数效应，CPI涨幅可能会在几个月内保持在低于2%的水平。但由于预计今年下半年需求会回升，可能不会发生通货紧缩。

These factors , together with a favorable base effect , will likely drive CPI inflation below 2 % for a few months , but deflation is likely to be avoided with the expected rebound of demand in the second half of the year .

野村（Nomura）经济学家张智威说：我们仍认为中国的经济复苏不可持续，今年第一和第二季度GDP同比增幅将分别回落至7.5%和7.1%，尽管基数效应有利。

' We reiterate our view that the recovery in China is not sustainable and that GDP growth will slow to 7.5 % year-over-year in the first quarter and 7.1 % in the second quarter , despite favorable base effects , ' said Zhiwei Zhang , an economist at Nomura .

但基数效应正在生效。

But the base effect is kicking in .

主要由于基数效应，对欧洲的非石油商品发货在二季度的增长中占了很大比重。

Non-oil shipments to Europe were a significant component of second-quarter growth , thanks largely to base effects .

它们的基数效应仍然较低，部分增长基于暂时性因素其中包括中国的大规模刺激计划。

The base effects are still low and part of the growth is based on transient factors , including a huge stimulus in China .

整体通胀率的下降，尽管很难说幅度够大，而且基本上是借助基数效应实现的，但还是给北京的政策制定者带来了他们急需的喘息空间。

The lowering of the headline inflation , hardly enough and largely achieved through the base effect , is a much needed break for the policy makers in Beijing .

我们认为，通胀已接近见顶，随着基数效应开始发挥作用以及先前的政策措施生效，在今年后几个月中通胀将逐渐走低。

We think inflation is close to a peak and will head lower later in the year as base effects turn favourable and the impact of previous policy measures kicks in .