通胀预期

通胀预期会从需求和供给等方面推动实际通货膨胀水平。

Inflation expectation will drive up actual inflation from demand and supply .

对我国经济运行中的菲利普斯曲线关系和通胀预期的实证分析

Positive Analysis on the philip 's Curve Relation in Chinese Economy and Inflation Expectation

世界银行（worldbank）将中国经济今年增长预期上调至9.5%，不过该机构警告称，中国需要收紧货币政策，并让人民币升值，以防止泡沫和通胀预期不断上升。

The world bank raised its growth forecast for China this year to 9.5 per cent , although it warned that tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency were needed to prevent bubbles and rising inflationary expectations .

周四早些时候，韩国央行（BankofKorea）选择保持利率不变。不过，该行将对2015年的增长预期和通胀预期都降低了0.5个百分点。

Earlier in the day , the Bank of Korea chose to leave rates on hold , but lowered its 2015 forecasts for both growth and inflation by half a percentage point .

正如IMF博客文章的作者所提出的：不应太过满足于长期通胀预期为正值的事实。

As the IMF authors argue : One should not take too much comfort in the fact that long-term inflation expectations are positive .

国债与tips收益率之间不断变化的利差不仅反映了通胀预期的变化，还反映了对投资者寻求安全的回应。

The changing spread between the yields on treasury bonds and tips reflects not only changes in inflation expectations but also the response to investors seeking safety .

这都是理论，但可能会破坏欧洲央行（ECB）将中期通胀预期稳定在每年约2%的努力。

This is all theoretical , but could undermine efforts by the European Central Bank to stabilise medium-term expectation of inflation to about 2 per cent a year .

imf首席经济学家西蒙约翰逊（simonjohnson）表示：“我们认为，全球通胀预期并未出现大幅上升的势头。”

Simon Johnson , chief economist at the IMF , says : " we do not think there has been a big movement up in expected inflation globally . "

MonumentSecurities的斯蒂芬刘易斯（StephenLewis）指出：FOMC委员们对于GDP增长的看法较4月会议时更加悲观，他们还下调了通胀预期。

FOMC members were more pessimistic on GDP growth than they had been in April and they lowered their projections for inflation , said Stephen Lewis at Monument Securities .

日本央行（BankofJapan）可能希望辩称，这种现象显示出通胀预期日益上升，他表示，实际上，在我们看来，这与其说关乎通胀预期，不如说是因为企业想收回一些现金。

The Bank of Japan may want to argue the phenomenon shows a rising expected inflation rate , he said . In reality , it seems to us , this is not about expected inflation as much as companies wanting to get some money back .

如果通胀预期和风险资产价格继续下行，才有可能实施某种形式的qe3。

If inflation expectations , and risky asset prices , keep sliding , then some form of qe3 becomes possible .

本周，日本央行（BoJ）将被迫下调经济增长及通胀预期。不过，日本官员释放的信号显示，目前不太可能推出更多经济刺激举措。

The Bank of Japan will be forced to cut its growth and inflation forecasts this week , but officials are signalling extra economic stimulus is unlikely for now .

例如，JP摩根（JPMorgan）刚刚调查了1800名投资者（见右），他们对2010年底以前美国、欧元区和英国的通胀预期中值为1%至1.5%。

JPMorgan , for example , has just surveyed 1,800 investors ( see right ), in which median expectations for inflation in the US , eurozone and UK are 1-1.5 per cent by late 2010 .

消费价格指数（cpi）或许没有像英国央行预期的那样快速下降，但薪资压力有限，通胀预期并无丝毫改变，更广泛的经济通胀指标异常疲弱。

Consumer price inflation might not have come down quite as quickly as the BOE expected , but wage pressure is contained , inflation expectations have not budged and wider measures of inflation in the economy are exceptionally weak .

美联储最早将于下月重启扩张性定量宽松货币政策（又名qe2）的可能性，导致美元汇率大幅下跌、大宗商品价格上涨、长期美国国债收益率攀升这些都是通胀预期上升的标志。

The prospect of the Fed restarting its expansionary quantitative easing policy , also known as QE2 , as early as next month has brought big falls in the dollar , rises in commodity prices and higher long-term Treasury yields all of which are barometers of higher inflation expectations .

美国可能会控制通胀预期重现的危险。

The US may manage the danger of resurgent inflationary expectations .

至关重要的是，美联储调降了其通胀预期。

Crucially , the US central bank downgraded its inflation outlook .

5年通胀预期已经跌至1.6%。

Five-year inflation expectations have fallen to 1.6 per cent .

可靠的通胀预期指标仅仅存在于工业化国家。

Reliable measures of inflation expectations exist only in the industrialised world .

通胀预期增强时，实际利率应为正值。

When inflation expectations rise , real interest rates should be positive .

各国央行仍需严密监控通胀预期。

Central banks do need to watch inflation expectations carefully .

从物价指数挂钩金边债券得出的通胀预期经历了大起大落。

Inflation expectations derived from index-linked gilts have veered wildly .

历史并不善待通胀预期的严重恶化。

History does not treat kindly a serious deterioration in inflationary expectations .

衡量新兴市场的通胀预期则困难得多。

It is much harder to measure inflation expectations in emerging markets .

投资主题一：通胀预期下的资源类个股。

Investment Theme : inflation expectations under the resource stocks .

另外，通缩预期可能会迅速变为超出目标的通胀预期。

Otherwise , deflationary expectations may swiftly turn into expectations of above-target inflation .

通胀预期、流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀的动态性质

Expectation , Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China

衡量市场长期通胀预期的指标本周大幅下滑。

Gauges of markets ' long-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply this week .

我也对中国通胀预期的管理表示忧虑。

I do have worry for the management of inflation expectations in China .

债券市场通胀预期、大宗商品价格及股价都在上涨。

Bond market inflation expectations , commodity prices and stocks are all rising .