货币周期

货币周期指导下的行业投资组合构建

Build an Investment Portfolio Depended on Monetary Cycle

它突破了货币周期理论，把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源；

The real business cycle theory regards the accidental and real impact such as the technological impact from the supply as the root of the economic fluctuation .

但是，货币政策周期现在一下子颠倒了过来。

But the monetary policy cycles have now abruptly reversed .

其二是真实经济周期理论，该理论对传统的货币经济周期理论形成挑战。

The second , real-business-cycle theory , challenges the traditional monetary-business-cycle theory .

当然，提早脱离宽松货币政策周期并非没有风险。

True , breaking away early from what Morgan Stanley dubs the monetary policy peloton isn 't without risks .

实际经济周期理论的提出和发展，被众多经济学家认为是对传统的货币经济周期理论的突破。

Most of economists look on the theory of real business cycles as the breakthrough of the traditional theory of monetary business cycles .

通胀也是一个因素。2010年底中国物价飙涨，促使中国央行启动货币紧缩周期。

Inflation is also a factor . China 's prices surged at the end of2010 , prompting a round of monetary tightening from the central bank .

经济放缓也使各央行陷入了两难境地，他们必须决定是否继续推行3月份启动的货币紧缩周期。

The slowdown also poses a dilemma for central bankers , who will have to decide whether to continue the monetary tightening cycle that started in March .

其一是货币经济周期理论，该理论强调货币供给在影响真实经济活动中的因果作用：货币供给的增长变化引起产出增长的变化（货币影响产出）；

Two very different theories explain this relationship . The first , monetary-business-cycle theory , assigns a causal role to money supply in influencing real economic activities : changes in money supply cause changes in output growth ( money causes output ) .

实际股票收益、通货膨胀与货币政策的周期性

Real Stock Returns , Inflation and Monetary Cyclical Nature in China

从非均衡货币储蓄经济周期模型可以得到边际消费倾向的一维递归方程。

From the economic cyclical model of nonequilibrium monetary savings we can get the one-dimension recursive equation of marginal consumption tendency .

一是健全宏观审慎政策框架，发挥货币政策逆周期调节作用。

First , we will improve the policy framework for exercising macro-control prudently and have monetary policy play the role of making counter-cyclic adjustments .

或许当货币政策紧缩周期结束时（预计在本季度发生），中国消费者将重新开始申办汽车贷款，而比亚迪将趁此机会在2012年东山再起。

Maybe when the monetary tightening cycle ends , expected to occur some time this quarter , Chinese consumers will start taking out auto loans again and BYD will make a comeback in2012 .

新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）是当前评价货币政策和经济周期分析的主流模型之一。

The new Keynesian Philips curve ( NKPC ) is one of the mainstreams models for the current evaluation of monetary policy and economic cycle analysis .

货币缺口对经济周期的峰值具有预警功能。

The money gap has the forecast function of extreme in business cycle .

经典的货币贬值-通胀周期正在逼近，可能导致金融危机。

A classical devaluation-inflation cycle is near and can lead to a financial meltdown .

正如财政和货币政策随着经济周期变化而变化，法规政策也许也应该如法炮制：在失业率高的时候放宽规章，失业率低的时候收紧规章。

Just as fiscal and monetary policy vary according to the economic cycle , so perhaps should regulatory policy : lighter when unemployment is high , heavier when it is low .

近十几年我国经济发展经历了周期性波动，因而进一步地，本文运用金融加速器理论研究货币政策在经济周期不同阶段对高科技上市公司投资的影响。

The GMM-estimation procedure proposed by Arellano and Bond ( the two-step difference method ) is used to study the effects of the monetary policy on the investment of the hi-tech listed companies through financial accelerator .

除长期走势之外，中国的M2/GDP还呈逆周期变动趋势，原因在于由谨慎动机引起的货币需求具有逆周期波动的特点。

Except that outside long-term trend , China 's M_2 / GDP also assumes the counter cyclical change tendency . The reason lies in the money demand which causes by the discrete motive have the characteristic of counter cyclical undulation .

随后通过实证检验就货币政策对经济周期波动的影响进行了定量分析，得出了货币冲击对实体经济影响显著、货币供应量的变化是造成我国经济周期波动的重要原因的结论。

Then we carried out quantitative analysis of the impact of monetary policy to economic cycle . We concluded that monetary lash affect the real economy obviously , the change of monetary supply is the significant reason of the surge of economic cycle .

本文在基本RBC模型的框架下，引入粘滞性价格和内生货币机制，建立包含货币政策的动态周期模型，并且用这个模型模拟了中国经济。

This paper extends the basic RBC ( Real Business Cycle ) model to a framework with sticky-price and endogenous monetary policy to study the fluctuation of China 's economy .

世界所有的市场经济国家都通过货币政策的制定和执行来对本国宏观经济进行调节和控制，货币政策与经济周期的关系问题是宏观经济学中长期争论的话题之一。

Every nation in the world enforces macroeconomic regulation and control on the domestic economy through monetary policy implementation . The relations between monetary policy and the economic cycle is the subject of debate in macroeconomics in a long time .