自然失业

简析自然失业率与失业临界值

A Brief Analysis of Rate of Natural Unemployment and Unemployment Critical Value

激励成本、劳动效率与自然失业率：一个效率成本模型

Incentive Cost , Labor Efficiency and Natural Unemployment

本文基于可变参数的假设，构建包含自然失业率变动过程和菲利普斯曲线关系的状态空间模型，应用Kalman滤波方法，估算出了1992&2004年随时间变动的自然失业率曲线。

Our state-space model is constructed with a variable parameter hypothesis which contains the course of the natural rate of unemployment changes and the Phillips curve . The time-variant curve of the natural rate of unemployment during 1992 & 2004 is estimated with Kalman Filtering .

本文利用HPMV滤波对我国的自然失业率进行估计，并且应用自然失业率对我国通货膨胀的特征进行分析。

In this paper , we use HPMV filter to estimate NAIRU , and make use of it to analyze the characteristics of the inflation in China .

为何各国的自然失业率不同？

Why might the natural rate of unemployment differ across countries ?

自然失业率的本质是什么？

What 's so natural about the natural rate of unemployment ?

效率条件决定的自然失业率：一个模型

A Model on NUR Depending on Efficiency Term

我国自然失业率的测量与解析&基于1978-2007年数据

The Measuring and Analyzing of NAIRU in China : Based on the Data of 1978-2007

失业问题的根源：研究过去几年失业率持续高企的根源及评估自然失业率。

Examining the sources of the persistently high unemployment rate in recent years and assessing the natural rate of unemployment .

除了这种传统的估计方法，对自然失业率的估计的方法还有三种：第一种是劳动市场结构化模型。

Except this way , three means often are used . The first one is the labor market structure model .

从长远看，失业率等于自然失业率，产量增长率等于它的标准增长率。

In the long run , unemployment is equal to the natural rate , and output grows at its normal growth rate .

我国当前的城镇失业中也包含了自然失业成分，例如结构性失业、摩擦性失业和古典失业等。

The recent unemployment in the urban areas in China certainly includes natural unemployment , such as structural unemployment , factional unemployment , etc.

弗里德曼的这套学说有时被称作垂直的菲利普斯曲线，有时被称作加速主义假说，也有时被称作“自然失业率”。

This family of Friedman doctrines was sometimes called the vertical Phillips curve , sometimes the accelerationist hypothesis and sometimes the'natural rate'of unemployment .

自然失业率是市场经济条件下实现效益型就业目标的必然结果和必要条件。

The natural unemployment rate is the inevitable results and necessary conditions of realizing the beneficial type of employment targets under the market economy .

研究结果表明，我国自然失业率的波动性明显逐渐变小，实际失业率与自然失业率的变动趋势基本一致；

The research shows that the fluctuation of NATRU becomes smaller gradually , and the trend of the changes in real unemployment is similar to NAIRU .

在这类书中，微观经济学重新回归，而宏观经济学则被忽略无论是后新古典内生增长理论还是自然失业率，都已无迹可寻。

In such books , microeconomics is back , macroeconomics is ignored . Nothing about post neo-classical endogenous growth theory and the natural rate of unemployment .

研究引致本港近年失业问题的两大根源：自然失业率及经济周期状况。

Examining two broad sources of unemployment in Hong Kong in recent years : the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical condition of the economy .

城镇登记失业率逐年增加，超过了4%的自然失业率，就业形势比较严峻。

Registered unemployment rate in the town is increasing year by year , exceeding 4 % , the natural unemployment rate , suggesting a serious situation .

我在牛津大学时读到他支持自然失业率观点的论点，那时这一概念刚刚提出，我现在还记得当时受到的震动。

I remember the shock when , at Oxford , I read his arguments supporting the idea of a natural rate of unemployment just after its appearance .

但如果通胀率越低的话，越将妨碍实际工资的调整，从而会增加自然失业率。

However , if the inflation rate lower , the more will impede the adjustment of real wages , which will increase the natural rate of unemployment .

在今天的美国，一年失业率低于自然失业率0.1%，将导致通货膨胀下降大约1个百分点。

In the United States today , an unemployment rate 1 % below the natural rate for a year leads to a decrease in inflation of about 1 percent .

失业按其基本特征可以分为两类：一类是由劳动力市场结构失衡引起的自然失业；

According to its basic features , unemployment may be categorized into two sorts : one is the natural unemployment , caused by structural imbalance of the labor market ;

该模型以工人对失业、工资和监督的重视程度等几个特征值为依托，显示了自然失业率的决定机制及实践含义。

The model shows the determining mechanism of NUR and its practical meanings , relying on several characteristic values such as unemployment , wage and consult which workers pay attention to .

本文的研究结论对于中国如何提高供需双方的匹配效率从而抑制大量失业与大量空缺岗位并存的现象、降低自然失业率有一定的参考价值。

The conclusion in the paper have some reference value for how to improve the matching efficiency between labor supply and demand and keep down the coexistence of many unemployment and many vacancies .

包括菲尔普斯的学生在内的经济学家们自然失业率变动缓慢或者不变，并投入了大的精力对其估测。

Economists , including some of his own students , commonly take this natural rate to be slow-moving , if not constant , and devote a great deal of effort to estimating it .

因此，当一个经济中工会组织的力量越是强大，集体谈判决定的工资就会偏高，使得劳动力供给曲线下降，意愿的劳动力需求量小于意愿的劳动力供给量，自然失业率升高。

Therefore , when the labor union organization is stronger in the economy , the wage that the collective negotiation decides is higher . It makes the supply curve of the labor force descending . The desired labor force demand is smaller than the desired labor force supply .

就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策&为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业？失业的严峻性主要表现在：城镇失业率加快上升，大量农村剩余劳动力需要转移，每年新增劳动力数量庞大，就业弹性不断下降。

The severity of unemployment is showed in the following aspects : the unemployment rate in cities and towns rises increasingly , the need of shifting considerable extra-labors in the countryside , the quantity of newly-increased labors are very large , and elasticity of employment continuously decreases per year .

当未预期到的供需变化导致实际失业率偏离自然失业率水平时，这种偏离会刺激通货膨胀率的变化，最终使失业率回到自然率失业水平。

When the unexpected supply and demand varieties cause the actual unemployment rate deviating from the level of the natural unemployment rate , this kind of deviation can stimulate the variety of the inflation rate . Finally , the actual unemployment rate returns to the level of the natural rate .

目前有两个认识误区：一个是经济增长会自然解决失业问题；

One is that Economic growth can solve automatically the problem of unemployment .

在他于1994年出版的《结构性低迷》一书中，他雄心勃勃的试图给出一个自然率失业是如何演化的一般理论。

His book " Structural Slumps ", published in1994 , is an ambitious attempt to provide a general theory of how the natural rate of unemployment evolves .