基本汇率

一些基本汇率均衡模型显示，美元汇率可能必须进一步下跌。基本汇率均衡模型计算在内部均衡的情况下，汇率必须达到什么水平，才能实现外部均衡。

Some fundamental exchange rate equilibrium models that calculate what exchange rate is needed to achieve external balance , given internal balance , suggest the dollar may need to fall further .

由于知识与信息的不足，外汇投机者很难形成水平确定并且个体相同的基本汇率趋势，这使得具有稳定汇率功能的回归预期难以形成；

Owing to lack of insight and information , foreign exchange speculators have difficulties to form a basic tendency of exchange rate on a definite level and shared by all individuals , which makes it hard to ensure the return expected when the exchange rate is stable ;

亚太经济合作组织（apec）各国财长在结束新加坡会议之际，强有力地支持实行“以市场为导向、反映经济基本面的汇率”，但小心避免了与实行盯住美元汇率的中国形成对抗。

Finance ministers from the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation group ended a meeting in Singapore with a strong endorsement of " market-oriented exchange rates that reflect economic fundamentals " but carefully avoided a confrontation with China over its currency peg to the US dollar .

以美元计价的主权债券市场仅仅出现轻微下跌，表明这个市场的投资者们他们能够基本隔绝汇率波动的影响眼下可能还不愿放弃获取更高收益的机会。

Dollar-denominated sovereign bond markets have suffered only a slight dip – suggesting that investors able to insulate themselves from currency swings may not yet be willing to give up the chance of higher returns .

购买力平价说是一种基本的汇率决定理论，但影响购买力平价关系成立的短期或长期经济因素众多，从而使得实际汇率经常偏离平价关系。

Purchasing power parity ( PPP ) is a basic exchange rate determinant theory . However , due to the numerous short and long term factors that affect PPP , the real exchange rates frequently deviate from it .

虽然汇率改革不会消除我们的贸易逆差，但由市场决定、能够反应中国经济基本面的汇率，是解决失衡问题必须采取的行动之一。

While currency reform is not going to eliminate our trade deficit , a market-determined exchange rate that reflects the underlying fundamentals of the Chinese economy is one component of the actions needed to address imbalances . ' '

本文首先对当前人民币基本均衡汇率的研究成果给出了综述，然后对动态购买力平价理论做出分析和研究，指出动态购买力平价理论均衡汇率是符合中国国情的。

This paper first discusses the research on the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate ( FEER ) of RMB . Then through analyzing the ppp theorem , we think the dynamic purchasing power parity ( PPP ) theorem on equilibrium exchange rate conforms to China .

基本要素均衡汇率的逻辑结构与悖论&基于汇率杠杆属性对FEER的超越

Logic and Paradox of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates Model

基本上浮动汇率制度下，供求规律决定一个国家的货币的价值，在任何一天。

Basically under floating regime , the law of supply and demand dictate the value of a country 's currency on any given day .

上周四，在新加坡召开会议的亚太经合组织（apec）表示，支持“以市场为导向、反映经济基本面因素的汇率”。

Last Thursday the Asia-Pacific economic co-operation group , meeting in Singapore , said it backed " market orientated exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals " .

基本经济因素对汇率短期波动的解释力度较弱。

Exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals .

展望2007年，对人民币汇率的基本判断为：汇率浮动空间将会进一步放宽，人民币汇率在双向波动中小幅升值。

On the whole , we estimate that the RMB floating band will be widened and the RMB will appreciate slightly during two-way fluctuation in2007 .

当一国经济实现了低通货膨胀下的经济持续、稳定增长，同时国际收支也达到了基本均衡，且汇率稳定，就可以说其经济处在内外均衡的状态，此时的外汇储备规模就是适度规模。

The scale under the situation of sustained and stable economy , low inflection and basic international payment balance can be taken as a suitable one .

在基本概率神经网络汇率预测模型中，通过变换输入向量维数进行实验，最终得出最佳输入向量嵌入维数。

Exchange rate in the basic probabilistic neural network prediction model , by changing the input vector dimension of the experiment , the final optimum embedding dimension input vector .

保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，扩大汇率双向浮动区间，推进人民币资本项目可兑换。

We will keep the renminbi exchange rate basically stable at an appropriate , balanced level , expand its floating range , and move toward renminbi convertibility under capital accounts .

以下因素为改革提供了有利条件，这些条件包括国际汇率制度的发展趋势、我国已积累的丰富经验、基本均衡的现实汇率、良好的经济运行态势、微观经济主体抗风险能力的提高。

These factors provide reform good conditions , which include the trend of international exchange rate regime , our experience accumulation , basically equilibrium of current exchange rate , excellent economic situation and enterprises ' high abilities to resist risks .

本文在对我国此次人民币汇率制度改革进行基本解析的基础上，进一步综述了前人关于金融工程内涵及其应用、汇率风险基本理论、汇率风险管理理论方面的相关研究成果。

On the foundations of parsing the reform of the Renminbi exchange rate regime , this dissertation summarizes the related research results in the aspect of financial engineering , the basic theories of exchange risk and the exchange risk management theories .