主权违约

风险咨询公司ControlRisks近期来自保险公司及其它金融机构的委托大增，对方都希望了解政治在主权违约风险中扮演的角色。

Control Risks a risk consultancy has seen a big increase in mandates from insurance companies and other financial institutions seeking to understand the part politics plays in sovereign default risk .

当出现主权违约等信用事件时，CDS合约的卖家必须赔偿买家。

Sellers of the CDS contracts have to compensate buyers of the derivatives when a credit event , such as a sovereign default , occurs .

然而，正如国际货币基金组织（IMF）一份报告所指出的那样，目前政策圈子中的主导思想是，发达经济体的主权违约是不必要、不受欢迎和不太可能的。

Yet the predominant thinking in policy circles now is that sovereign default in an advanced economy , as an International Monetary Fund report puts it , is unnecessary , undesirable and unlikely .

IMF发出警告之际，投资者加速退出美国短期国债市场。人们日益担忧，若美国不能提高举债上限，导致本月发生主权违约，市场将陷入动荡。

The warnings came as investors accelerated their exit from the Treasury bill market , as concern mounted about market turmoil should a failure to raise the debt ceiling result in a default this month .

欧洲正被一个幽灵缠身：那就是主权违约的幽灵。

A spectre is haunting Europe the spectre of sovereign default .

然而，主权违约的长期历史则讲述着截然不同的故事。

Yet the long history of sovereign defaults tells a different story .

主权违约不一定导致有关国家退出欧元区。

Exit from the eurozone would not necessarily follow a sovereign default .

其次，欧元区会做出防止主权违约所需要的改变吗？

Second , will the eurozone make the changes needed to prevent these ?

除去主权违约的末日情景外，还有两种部分出路。

Apart from the Armageddon of a sovereign default , two partial escapes exist .

如果只有希腊一国出现无序的主权违约且退出欧元区，情况还是可控的。

A disorderly sovereign default and eurozone exit by Greece alone would be manageable .

因此说，主权违约的幽灵已经在富裕国家重现。

The spectre of sovereign default , therefore , has returned to the rich world .

政策制定者公开宣称不会出现任何主权违约，掩盖了他们私下里对债务陷阱的疑虑。

Public declarations that there can be no sovereign defaults conceal private doubts among policymakers about debt traps .

在不造成金融崩溃和主权违约的情况下控制这样一个危机，是超出爱尔兰的能力范围的。

Such a crisis is beyond the ability of Ireland to manage without financial collapse and sovereign default .

然而，若是意大利出现无序的主权违约且退出欧元区，欧洲银行业则将遭受重创。

However , a disorderly sovereign default and eurozone exit by Italy would bring down much of the European banking sector .

这是不是全球信贷危机的第二阶段&其特征是一连串规模最大的经济体出现主权违约？

Is this stage two of the global credit crisis , featuring a chain of sovereign defaults among the largest economies ?

但希腊主权违约并不是如此牵强的场景即使你认为这不太可能发生。

But sovereign default in the case of Greece is not such a far-fetched scenario even if you believe it to be unlikely .

令人担忧的是，看多人士提出，信用违约互换如今提供了一种针对主权违约的低成本对冲方式，从而刺激了更多的投资流。

It gets alarming when bulls argue that credit default swaps now provide a cheap hedge against sovereign defaults , enabling far more investment flows .

一些无法预料的冲击，从主权违约到过热的新兴市场的银根快速收紧都可能破坏复苏。

Any number of unpredictable shocks , from a big sovereign default to rapid monetary tightening in overheating emerging markets , could undermine the recovery .

而最糟的结果，是欧元土崩瓦解，或者一波混乱无序的主权违约可能致使金融体系失常，并引发双底经济衰退。

At worst , a disintegration of the single currency or a wave of disorderly defaults could unhinge the financial system and precipitate a double-dip recession .

但要小心：有一天，在狼来了的喊声之后会真的出现主权违约，这只狼会把欧元狠狠咬掉一大块。

But watch out : one day the cry of wolf will be followed by a government default , taking a big bite out of the euro .

联盟成功运作的必要条件包括：为整顿提供财政资助，避免不必要的主权违约，以及改革金融部门。

Among the necessary conditions for successful operation of the union are fiscal financing of adjustment , to avoid unnecessary sovereign defaults , and financial sector reform .

但德银的做法并非简单地抛售这些债券；而是通过信用衍生品合约，来买入防范主权违约的“保险”，从而实现了自己的目标。

But it did not do that by simply selling debt ; instead it achieved this partly by buying protection against sovereign default with credit derivatives contracts .

第三个问题是最严重的，甚至动摇了整个测试的可信度：测试并未考虑到主权违约的可能性。

The third problem is the most severe , and knocks the credibility of the entire exercise . There was no provision for the possibility of sovereign default .

首先，欧元区出口增长提速，将减轻外界对该地区主权违约的疑虑，不管最初状况是存在顺差还是逆差。

First , faster eurozone export growth will lead to fewer doubts about sovereign solvency in the area , regardless of whether a surplus or deficit exists as an initial condition .

由于政治家断定主权违约不会出现，这种情形没有被纳入考虑范围。不过，他们倒是考虑到了烦人的市场或许不相信上述说法的可能性。

Sovereign default is not considered , since politicians have decreed it will not happen , although allowance is made for   the   possibility   that   pesky   markets might not believe that assertion .

第三，要想如同欧洲央行所坚持的那样避免主权违约的风险，对弱国的融资必须被抽离市场数年，甚至可能多达十年。

Third , if the perils of sovereign defaults are to be avoided , as the ECB insists , finance of weak countries must be taken out of the market for years , perhaps even a decade .

他们可能会考虑这一事实：衍生品市场正在将一些惊人的主权违约率考虑在内巴基斯坦为90%，乌克兰为80%等等。

They might perhaps ponder the fact that derivatives markets are now pricing in some quite startling probabilities of sovereign default : 90 per cent for Pakistan , 80 per cent for the Ukraine and so forth .

这进而引出了另一个更令人不安的问题：倘若按总值、而非净值来衡量欧洲各大银行的敞口，当面对主权违约冲击时，这些银行会变得多么脆弱？

And that in turn raises a more unnerving question : if the exposures of the large European banks were measured in gross , not net , terms , just how much more vulnerable might they be to sovereign shocks ?

但近来，随着投资者上调或下调美国经济陷入衰退、或欧洲主权违约引发金融危机的风险，市场上出现了群起抛售和竞相买进轮流转换的态势。

But markets of late have been characterised by mass selling alternating with waves of buying , as investors upgrade or downgrade the risk of the US slipping into recession , or a financial crisis sparked by a European sovereign default .

除了这些监管举措以外，还有出于政治目的而出台的措施，它们影响到欧盟主权信用违约互换（CDS）合约的交易。

Onto these regulations were tacked more politically driven measures affecting the trading of EU sovereign credit default swaps .