传染效应

基于VAR模型的金融危机传染效应检验方法与实证分析

Testing Approach and Empirical Analysis on Contagion Effect Based on VAR Model

基于条件Copula模型的股票市场间危机传染效应研究

A Study on Financial Contagion Effect among Stock Markets Based on the Conditional Copula Model

另外，针对当前美国金融危机，用Copula方法对金砖四国的受传染效应进行了检验。

Finally , a test was done for financial crisis contagion about the " BRICs " with Copula methods under the current United States financial crisis .

本文创新地从系统重要性的角度研究银行风险传染效应，同时利用Copula函数进行定量分析，更好地认识到风险的传染机制，具有较强的理论及实际意义。

This paper studies the bank contagion effect from the perspective of systemically importance innovatively and uses Copula function for quantitative analysis to better understand the mechanisms of risk contagion with strong theoretical and practical significance .

产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers .

在许多人看来，这种传染效应证明，脱钩尚没有真正发生。

This contagion is evidence to many that decoupling is still not really happening .

传染效应是银行系统性风险的核心问题。

Contagion effect is the key problem of the Banking Systemic Risk ( BSR ) .

但它肯定会产生传染效应。

But it would surely generate contagion .

伴随银行网络系统内的业务往来，银行间债务违约存在一定的传染效应。

Business within bank network system causes that banks ' debt default has certain contagion effect .

并运用此方法，实证分析了亚洲金融危机的传染效应。

I have also empirically examined the contagion effect in Asia with the application of this method .

答案是传染效应，正如10年前亚洲金融危机期间发生的状况一样。

Contagion is the answer , just as it was during the Asian financial crisis of a decade ago .

这不仅说明了钢铁行业的危机对其它行业具有传染效应，也说明了次贷危机的交叉传染效应。

This not only shows the steel industry crisis to other industries have contagion effect , also explains the subprime crisis crossover contagion effect .

本文通过对现有研究进行比较分析，提炼出金融危机传染效应的定义，并定性分析了金融危机传染效应的微观和宏观基础。

This paper compares the current literatures from which abstract the contagion definition , then analyzes the micro and macro base of contagion effect .

近年来金融危机频频爆发，国与国之间较强的风险传染效应无疑加剧了商业银行面临的流动性风险。

And because of the frequent outbreak of financial crisis and its strong contagion effect , the liquidity risk faced by China becomes worsen .

即使经济基本面良好，在国际投机资本的冲击之下和金融危机的传染效应之下，也有可能发生自发型危机。

On the raid of international speculative capital and financial crises ' contagious effect , a country with a healthy economy can occur spontaneous crises .

此外，采取分散化措施能否有效地降低银行风险传染效应，这要取决于银行间市场当前所处的状态和市场结构特征。

Furthermore , whether the decentralization measures can effectively lower the contagion effect relies on the states and structure features of the interbank market . 6 .

研究结果表明，从长期来看，银行间市场成员规模的扩张有利于降低银行间市场中的风险传染效应。

Our results indicate that , in the long term , increasing in the member size of interbank market can help to lower the contagion effect in the market .

这种不可避免的传染效应及其对欧洲金融体系的潜在影响，正是欧洲央行决心避免让希腊在此时违约的原因所在。

This inevitable contagion and its potential consequences for the European financial system is the reason the European Central Bank is determined to avoid a default at this time .

第五章则通过宏观经济冲击情景模拟来实证分析宏观经济因素冲击下我国银行间市场的风险传染效应。

By enforcing the scenario simulation in the fifth chapter , we positively analysis the risk contagion effect of our interbank market under the shock of different macroeconomic factors .

今年秋天，她又开始尽力挽救希腊，避免它退出欧元区，以阻止可能发生的传染效应而导致的最糟结局：全球性的经济萧条。

This fall she has been fighting to keep struggling Greece in the eurozone to prevent possible contagion should it fail , and avoid the worst-case outcome , global economic meltdown .

这种金融传染效应取决于金融市场的主要变量和经济基本面，而真正促成传染的则是微观市场主体及其行为、态度、心理等因素。

Such financial contagious effects do depend on the financial variables and economic fundmentals , but the real cause is the behaviors , attitudes , and mentalities of the microcosmic market participants .

危机期间，常常出现某一家公司违约引起与之关联的公司相继发生违约甚至破产的现象，形成多米诺骨牌式的传染效应。

During the period of crisis , it usually appears a phenomenon that one company default causes the related companies default successively and even go bankrupt , which have a domino contagion effect .

通过研究，我们发现：第一、推动因素是指决定国际金融资本流入一国的外部动因，主要包括世界利率、世界产出和传染效应。

Through solid study , we find some results . Firstly , push factors include some external forces that push financial capital into a country such as world interest rate , world output and contagion .

流动性风险是一种非系统性风险，往往仅影响单个金融机构，但在特殊环境下非常容易转化为系统性风险，产生传染效应和多米诺效应，从而波及整个金融体系。

Liquidity risk is a non-systemic risk , often affect only a single financial institution , but under special circumstances very easily converted into systemic risk , contagion effects and the domino effect , thus affecting the entire financial system .

技术溢出的传导途径主要包括：竞争效应、传染效应、干中学效应、技术培训效应；进口贸易技术溢出主要影响因素：外商直接投资、研发投入、人力资本水平、进口贸易结构、专利保护制度等。

Technology overflow pathway include : competitive effects , transmission effects , secondary effects of dry , technical training effect . Factors influence the technological spillovers of import trade are mainly FDI , R & D , human capital level , the structure of import trade regime of patent protection .

研究结论显示，银行系统性风险具有传染与扩散效应，这种传染与扩散效应具有自放大性，并最终可能使银行系统失去基本功能。

The conclusion is that BSR has contagion and diffusion effect that has self-magnification and can make the banking system lose its basic function in the end .

比如，在这次研究中，作者发现猪油作为传染源会产生强烈的产品传染效应。

For example , in the current research , the authors observe strong product contagion effects with lard as a source of contagion .

本文运用VAR系统的方法，提出了通过分析危机前后各国市场波动性之间的因果关系的变化、以及被传染国家对危机发源国的冲击响应的变化，来检验金融危机传染效应的新方法。

Applying VAR model , this paper introduces a new method to testify the contagion effect of crisis by analyzing the Granger Causality change of the volatility of two markets and the change of impulse response of the infected country to original crisis country prior to and after crisis periods .

本文立足于对金融危机传染性研究的传统理论与方法，进一步分析了开放经济条件下危机传染的影响因素，着重从模型出发，定量地阐述并说明了危机的传染效应及渠道。

Basing on the traditional theories and methods , this paper analyzes the influencing factors under open condition and expatiates the effect and channel of crisis contagions quantitatively .

在传染风险的估计上，本文使用了最大熵矩阵法，该方法可以完整且清晰地刻画传染路径和过程，使传染效应更具直观性。

When estimating the contagion risk , we use the Maximum Entropy method , which can depict the transmission path and process clearly and make the contagion effect more intuitive .