人口预测法

人口预测离散模型法

A method of discrete model in population forecasting

本文依据人口平衡方程，运用人口分要素组合预测法，阐述了开放区域人口预测的基本方法和步骤，从而为具体的人口预测工作提供思路借鉴。

According to the population equilibrium equation and utilize the population poly-factor compounding projection , this paper expounds the basic population projection methods and steps in the exoteric regions so as to provide the concrete population forecast practice some instructions .

并以人口数据为基础，利用定性分析法、人口预测法、联合国法等方法预测了2010和2020年犍为县的城镇化水平，2010和2020年犍为县城镇化水平分别为37.74%4、8.82%；

And take this as foundation , it also calculates the urbanization level in the year 2010 and 2020 with the methods of the qualitative analytic method , population forecasting method and the United Nations method .