投机泡沫

本文根据历史泡沫事件的特征，提出了一个投机泡沫的混合理性模型。

Based on characteristics of historical bubble events , this paper presents a hybrid-rational model of speculative bubbles .

1994年，中国有债券期货，但出现了巨大的投机泡沫，许多人受了伤。

In 1994 , China had bond futures and there were huge speculative bubbles and many people got burnt .

每个人都希望这些高科技公司能成为未来的微软。目前它们看上去更像是投机泡沫的中心。

Everyone is hoping that these hi-tech companies will turn out to be the Microsofts of the future . At the moment they look more like the focus of a speculative bubble

近一年来在上海证交所上市的首家公司成渝高速（SichuanExpressway）上市首日涨幅超过3倍，对此，专家警告投资者：中国股市存在投机泡沫。

Investors were warned of speculative froth in the Chinese market after Sichuan Expressway , the first company to list on the Shanghai exchange in almost a year , more than tripled on its trading debut .

亿万富翁投资商乔治索罗斯（georgesoros）最近在美国国会作证时表示，他认为在最近的油价飙升中，投机泡沫多于基本面供需因素。

George Soros , the billionaire investor , recently testified to us congressmen that he believed a speculator bubble was perched atop the fundamental supply and demand reasons for the recent surge in prices .

这与投机泡沫理论的预示相符。

These facts are consistent with the predictions of speculative bubble theory .

基于行为金融理论的非理性投机泡沫模型

Model of irrational speculation bubble based on behavioral finance

在此基础之上放松前提假定，将一般均衡框架下的理性投机泡沫推广到有限理性的情况。

By relaxing the premise , it develops the research to the limited logical condition .

非理性投机泡沫认为，资产价格泡沫是市场主体行为的结果，是一种客观存在。

The irrational speculative bubbles thinks the asset price bubbles is made by the behavior of investor in market .

投机泡沫理论可分为理性投机泡沫和非理性投机泡沫两个方向。

The theory of speculative bubbles can be divided into two parts : rational speculative bubbles and irrational speculative bubbles .

当代汇率决定理论主要包括：投机泡沫理论、新闻模型和混沌分析方法。

The contemporary exchange rate determination theory includes the speculation foam theory , the news model and the chaotic model .

接着用理性预期条件下投机泡沫模型对我国的房地产市场泡沫程度进行测度。

Then which based on Speculation Bubble Model under the rational expectation hypothesis make a systematic measurement of Real Estate Bubble .

理性投机泡沫研究主要遵循理性人的研究范式，其中占据主导地位的是理性投机泡沫模型。

The rational speculative bubbles follows the way of rational people . The important in it is the rational speculative bubbles model .

结果表明，在样本期内，我国城镇住宅市场在全局意义上的总体泡沫度逐步减小、理性泡沫度逐步增大、投机泡沫远未出现；

The results indicate that there are decreasing total bubbles and relatively stable and rational bubbles in the cities during the period .

然而，尽管存在关于投机泡沫的种种言论，但自那时以来，一些大宗商品的价格有所下降。

However , in spite of the talk about a speculative bubble , the prices of some commodities have fallen since then .

而且，自上世纪80年代市场改革提速以来，投机泡沫在中国一直经久不衰。

And that in a country where speculative bubbles have been a constant phenomenon since market-based reforms picked up pace in the 1980s .

论文的主要创新点：1、提出一个改进的两状态转换的周期破灭性投机泡沫模型。

The primary innovations of the dissertation are summarized in the following : 1 . Propose a modified two regime-switching models of speculative behavior .

本文以中国权证市场为研究对象，结合理论和实证检验对中国权证市场的投机泡沫进行较为系统、全面的观察和探讨。

This paper aims to conduct a systematic observation and analysis of the Chinese speculative warrant bubbles by applying theoretical and positive analysis methods .

近年来，投机性金融活动成为发展中国家金融危机的一个重要因素，金融自由化导致了资产价格泡沫，而投机泡沫的破灭引致银行部门危机，进而导致经济衰退。

Recently , speculative financial behavior has become a major factor of financial crisis in developing countries . Financial liberalization leads to assets price bubbles .

的确，大宗商品和矿业公司上方的投机泡沫已被吹走，资金将继续退出这一领域。

Sure , the speculative froth has been blown off the top of commodity prices and mining companies , and money continues to exit the sector .

因为信息不对称，以及股市参与主体的非理性产生互相追踪的羊群效应，引发市场投机泡沫。

The asymmetry of market information and " flock effect " caused by stock market participants ' irrational activity arose the speculation foam on stock market .

在经过5年的稳步增长后，美国经济的发展速度已大幅度放慢，部分原因是由于房市投机泡沫破裂。

After five years of steady growth , the U.S. economy has slowed dramatically , in part because the collapse of a speculative bubble in housing .

上次发生在1980年的黄金投机泡沫，花了四年时间破裂，而此次泡沫的形成就耗时七年。

The last speculative gold bubble , in 1980 , took four years to implode , while this latest reincarnation is seven years in the making .

目前，北京和深圳的投机泡沫已经非常严重，而上海和南宁的投机泡沫却相对较低，广州和其余中、西部样本城市则远未出现投机泡沫；

They show that there are relatively small and speculative housing bubbles in most middle and west cities while the bubbles in east cities have been expanding rapidly .

行为金融理论的兴起及发展为投机泡沫的研究开辟了新思路，成为传统金融理论的有力补充。

As a strong complement to traditional financial theory , the rise and development of behavioral finance theory opens a new way to the study of speculative bubbles .

希勒认为，近年来的住宅价格繁荣是一个“典型的投机泡沫”，其驱动因素是投资者的狂热情绪和对未来回报不切实际的预期。

Mr Shiller argued that the house price boom of recent years was a " classic speculative bubble " driven by investor mania and unrealistic expectations of future returns .

随着中国人寻找新的投资类别，规模不大且不透明的邮票市场，和其它市场一样有可能出现投机泡沫。

As the Chinese search out new assets in which to invest , the small and opaque stamp market is as good a candidate as any for a speculative bubble .

实证模型分别用北京（2006-2010）数据和美国（1991-2006年）数据做对比分析，之后又利用偏相关系数构造了房价投机泡沫度指标。

The model uses Beijing 2006-2010 year data and American 1991-2006 year data makes a contrastive analysis separately , afterward we using the partial correlation coefficient constructed the house price index .

报告称，次贷危机将影响到华尔街的奖金收入如今看上去几乎前所未见的这场艺术品市场投机泡沫，正是在华尔街奖金收入的推动下形成的。

The subprime crisis will take its toll on Wall Street bonuses that fuelled what now looks like a speculative bubble almost unprecedented in the art market , the report warns .

羊群行为会驱使股价偏离或接近其内在价值，可能会造成股价的过度波动、市场崩溃、投机泡沫等现象。

It will drive the stock prices to depart from or approach to its inherent value , and also can induce the price overreaction , the market collapse and speculative bubble .